WS #6190

The dominant narrative remains the Iran war and its impact on global energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz near-closure and Brent crude above $111/bbl. The UAE's shock decision to quit OPEC adds a structural layer to oil market uncertainty, potentially weakening the cartel's influence. A key counter-signal emerged: Trump stated Iran wants the Strait reopened 'as soon as possible,' and Iran's deputy representative said 'mediation is not important, result is important,' hinting at diplomatic progress. However, UN data shows Strait of Hormuz ship traffic down 95.3%, and multiple sources confirm the closure persists. On the earnings front, Starbucks (SBUX) delivered a massive beat-and-raise quarter, with comps surging 6.2% and EPS beating by 16%, signaling a successful turnaround under CEO Niccol. This is a high-significance positive that should carry forward. Conversely, a WSJ report that OpenAI missed ChatGPT growth targets triggered a tech selloff, with NVDA dropping >3% and AMD falling 11%, creating a MAG7 carve-out contradicting the broader AI narrative. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its April meeting, with Powell's potential departure adding uncertainty. The UK faces a £35bn economic hit and recession risk from the Iran war, per NIESR. Overall, the oil supply crisis narrative is STABLE but with a slight de-escalation signal from diplomatic comments, while the tech narrative is bearish on AI demand concerns.