WS #6215

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran war and its energy market implications, with Brent crude above $114/bbl and the US maintaining its naval blockade of Iranian ports. The UAE's shock exit from OPEC is a major development that could reshape oil supply dynamics, as the UAE may boost production by 1 million bpd, potentially countering some of the supply disruption from the Iran conflict. Russia has stated it will remain in OPEC+, but the cartel's cohesion is now in question. Meanwhile, Ukraine struck Russian oil infrastructure 1,500 km inside Russia, hitting a key Transneft pumping station in Perm and a refinery in Orsk, which could further disrupt Russian oil flows westward. On the macro front, German inflation came in below expectations at 2.9% YoY (vs 3.0% consensus), which may give the ECB some breathing room ahead of its decision tomorrow. The Fed decision today is the key event, with markets expecting a hold but watching for Powell's tone. In corporate news, mega-cap tech earnings dominate the after-hours session with Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon reporting. Pre-market moves show NXP Semiconductors surging on strong results, while Robinhood and Brown-Forman are lower. The KalVista acquisition by Chiesi for $1.9B is a notable M&A event. Overall, the energy crisis narrative is escalating with the UAE OPEC exit and Ukraine's deep strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, while the Fed and tech earnings provide potential counter-signals. Key developments in this window include: (1) White House confirms Trump discussed extending the Iran blockade for months, escalating the energy supply crisis; (2) Ukraine struck the Tuapse refinery for the third time in April, and a pumping station in Perm, deepening Russian oil supply disruption; (3) O-I Glass plunged 16% after cutting guidance due to higher global energy costs from the Middle East war, directly linking the conflict to corporate earnings; (4) Booking Holdings cut FY26 guidance as the Hormuz crisis triggered cancellations, showing travel sector impact; (5) Wingstop cut same-store sales outlook citing consumer pressure and uncertainty; (6) Pershing Square IPO raised $5B, a significant capital markets event; (7) OpenAI shifted strategic focus from Microsoft toward Amazon, a major tech partnership realignment; (8) EQT is preparing an improved takeover offer for UK's Intertek, signaling M&A activity; (9) US building permits plunged 10.8% MoM in March, the lowest since Aug 2025, indicating housing market weakness; (10) Central banks bought 244 tons of gold in Q1 amid price slump, signaling continued de-dollarization.