WS #6226

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Iran conflict, with multiple sources confirming that President Trump has rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining the naval blockade until a nuclear deal is reached. This has triggered a sharp spike in oil prices, with Brent crude topping $116 and WTI rising about 7%, while US gasoline futures hit their highest since 2022. The Pentagon has prepared plans for a potential wave of strikes on Iran, and the war has cost the US $25 billion so far. This development counters any hopes of near-term de-escalation and reinforces the bullish energy / bearish risk narrative. Separately, the Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed Chair, clearing a key hurdle. In corporate news, NXP Semiconductors surged 26% after a strong earnings beat, and several MAG7 companies (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft) are set to report earnings after the bell, with high expectations for cloud and AI growth. The Supreme Court struck down a Louisiana redistricting map under the Voting Rights Act, a significant legal development but with limited direct market impact.