WS #6233

The dominant market narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict and oil price surge, with no material de-escalation. Oil prices surged over 7% with Brent crude surpassing $119/barrel and WTI above $107, driven by reports that Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and is preparing for a long-term blockade. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Axios, Reuters, and Alpaca News. The Pentagon confirmed the war has cost $25 billion so far. OPEC+ is expected to approve a quota increase of 188,000-206,000 bpd at its Sunday meeting, excluding the UAE, which could provide a minor counter-signal to the supply crisis. Separately, the Putin-Trump phone call discussed Iran and Ukraine, with Trump reportedly believing a Ukraine deal is close, but no concrete breakthrough emerged. The Bank of Canada held rates flat but warned of rising inflation due to the oil shock. In corporate news, GE HealthCare slashed its full-year guidance, sending shares down 12%, while Seagate and Phillips 66 posted strong results. The Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act, a political development with limited direct market impact. The overall narrative is ESCALATING on the US-Iran front, with oil prices at multi-year highs and no diplomatic resolution in sight.