WS #6245

The dominant narrative in this window is the deluge of mega-cap tech earnings after the close, which will drive the next 1-8 hours. Microsoft (MSFT) beat Q3 estimates with EPS of $4.27 vs $4.07 est, revenue $82.9B vs $81.4B est, and Azure growth of 40% YoY, but the stock turned red in after-hours trading as AI capex commentary and guidance weighed. Alphabet (GOOGL) crushed Q1 estimates with EPS of $5.11 vs $2.62 est, revenue $109.9B vs $104.1B est, and Waymo surpassing 500K autonomous rides per week; stock surged over 5% AH. Meta (META) beat Q1 estimates with EPS of $7.31 vs $6.78 est, revenue $56.3B vs $55.4B est, but Reality Labs lost over $4B and the company boosted AI capex to $145B; stock initially fell. Amazon (AMZN) beat Q1 estimates with EPS of $2.78 vs $1.64 est, revenue $181.5B vs $177.3B est, and AWS growth beat expectations, but free cash flow declined due to AI investments; stock slightly down AH. Qualcomm (QCOM) beat Q2 estimates but guided Q3 well below consensus, citing handset weakness and memory supply issues; stock fell. KLA Corp (KLAC) beat Q3 estimates but free cash flow dropped 37%, and the stock was whacked after hours, following Teradyne and Corning in signaling memory/data center capex concerns. The MAG7 narrative is mixed: GOOGL and AMZN are strong, MSFT and META are mixed, QCOM and KLAC are weak. The Fed decision and Powell's last stand killed the rate-cut trade, with Polymarket odds of zero cuts in 2026 surging to 55.6%. Oil prices surged to highest since June 2022 on the Strait of Hormuz blockade, with no end in sight to the US-Iran conflict. The UAE's exit from OPEC was welcomed by Trump as price-lowering, but African oil producers face instability. The prevailing macro theme is ESCALATING on oil/geopolitics, but the tech earnings are the immediate market mover.