WS #6251

The dominant signal in this window is the mixed mega-cap tech earnings after the close, with clear winners and losers. Alphabet surged ~6% after Google Cloud revenue jumped 63% to $20B, while Microsoft fell 2% on cloud growth that merely met expectations and capex below estimates. Meta dropped 6% after raising its 2026 capex forecast to $125-145B, disappointing investors who wanted lower spending. Amazon reported strong results but fell 2% on elevated capex. Qualcomm shares soared 16% after CEO comments about a large hyperscaler customer for data center chips. The Iran conflict narrative remains ESCALATING: Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian Sea side, and Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the strait. Brent crude surged above $119/barrel. The UAE's OPEC exit counters the bullish oil thesis by potentially increasing future supply, but near-term supply disruption fears dominate. The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% as expected, but the decision was the most divided in decades (4 dissents), with Powell signaling rates may stay higher for longer due to energy-driven inflation. Powell confirmed he will remain as a Fed governor after his chairmanship ends, denying Trump a board appointment. Anthropic is considering funding at over $900B valuation, signaling frothy AI private markets. Gold extended losses to a one-month low, down 12% since the Iran war started.