WS #6257
The dominant narrative remains the escalating Iran conflict, with oil prices surging above $119/bbl on reports of an extended US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, and the US is now pitching a new international coalition to restore shipping traffic. The Pentagon officially priced the Iran war at $25bn so far, mostly in munitions. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5-3.75% with a record 4 dissents, and Powell announced he will stay on as Fed governor, defying Trump. Big Tech earnings were mixed: Alphabet and Amazon beat on strong cloud/AI growth, while Meta beat but fell on raised capex guidance ($125-145bn). Samsung Electronics reported strong Q1 earnings and initiated mass production of HBM4 for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform. The Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING with no de-escalation signals, but the US proposal for a new coalition to restore Hormuz traffic represents a potential counter-signal to the blockade-driven oil supply crisis.
Key developments
- Trump orders extended blockade of Iran, rejects proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz
- Fed holds rates steady with 4 dissents; Powell to stay on as governor
- Alphabet Q1 earnings beat: revenue $109.9B vs $107.2B est., EPS $5.11 vs $2.63 est., cloud revenue up 63%
- Meta Q1 earnings beat but stock falls 6.5% on raised capex guidance ($125-145B) and DAP decline
- Samsung initiates mass production of HBM4 for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform
- Pentagon says Iran war has cost $25B so far, mostly in munitions
- Trump threatens to reduce US troops in Germany after Merz criticizes Iran war strategy