WS #6289

The dominant theme in this window is the escalating Iran conflict and its market implications, with multiple cross-source corroborated developments. Trump cast doubt on the Iran ceasefire, claiming it may be broken, while simultaneously asserting a blockade is underway in the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran is receiving no oil revenue. Iran's supreme leader vowed to protect nuclear and missile capabilities and threatened US forces in the Persian Gulf. The UK raised its terror threat level to 'severe' following antisemitic attacks. These developments are ESCALATING the geopolitical risk premium. In a counter-signal, Trump lifted some whisky tariffs following the King's visit, a minor trade de-escalation with the UK. On the earnings front, Meta's stock plunged 9% despite a beat, as the company revealed a staggering $145 billion AI spending plan, causing investor fatigue. This contradicts the broader 'tech rally' narrative from strong Microsoft and Alphabet earnings. The US Senate unanimously passed a ban on prediction market trading for members and staff. The DHS funding bill passed the House, ending the longest partial shutdown in US history, which is a counter-signal to the bearish consumer/TSA disruption thesis. Oil prices remain elevated with WTI around $104 and Brent near $114, and the EU warned of potential jet fuel shortages by June if the Hormuz closure continues.