WS #6295

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with multiple sources corroborating a drone strike on an oil refinery in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, by Iranian forces. This event, combined with ongoing military alerts around the Strait of Hormuz, reinforces the bullish case for oil prices and energy stocks while creating headwinds for airlines and consumer sectors. Separately, the US House voted to end the 76-day partial government shutdown, a counter-signal to government dysfunction fears. In earnings, Apple (AAPL) reported a beat on revenue and EPS, but iPhone revenue slightly missed estimates, and the stock was marginally lower after hours. The $100B buyback provides a floor. Roku (ROKU) and Reddit (RDDT) popped on beats, while Roblox (RBLX) plunged on guidance cuts. JP Morgan upgraded Teradyne (TER) and raised Amazon (AMZN) price target, while downgrading Meta (META) and Kaiser Aluminum (KALU). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, with the S&P up ~10% in April. The Iran geopolitical theme is ESCALATING (drone strike on refinery, military alerts). The Apple narrative is STABLE (beat confirmed, but iPhone miss caps upside). The government shutdown narrative is DE-ESCALATING (bill signed).