WS #6297

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran war and its economic fallout, with oil prices above $110/bbl and US gas reaching $4.30/gallon. The situation is ESCALATING: a BBC report indicates Trump will be briefed on new Iran military options, and the 60-day War Powers Act deadline expires Friday, raising constitutional concerns. Iran remains defiant, and a drone attack hit an Erbil oil refinery. However, a potential counter-signal emerged: Iranian President Pezeshkian stated Iran is exercising restraint regarding the Hormuz blockade, and oil prices turned lower in volatile trading. Separately, Apple reported a massive beat: Q2 EPS $2.01 vs $1.96 est., revenue $111.2B vs $109.66B est., with Q3 revenue guidance of 14-17% growth (vs 9.5% est.), sending shares up 3.6% after hours. This is a high-significance MAG7 carve-out that contradicts the broader macro bearishness. The House passed DHS funding, ending the 76-day shutdown, which removes a tail risk for the economy. Gold rebounded 2.2% as the dollar fell on suspected yen intervention. Roku also beat estimates, with revenue up 22% to $1.25B. The UK raised its terror threat level to 'severe' after the Golders Green stabbing, which may weigh on travel/leisure stocks. Overall, the macro picture is dominated by oil/geopolitical risk, but Apple's blowout quarter provides a powerful positive counterweight for tech.