WS #6301

The dominant narrative in this window is the escalation of Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, with multiple sources confirming at least 21 strikes in April, the highest since December 2025. This has pushed Russia's refinery output to its lowest since December 2009, creating a supply squeeze that supports elevated oil prices. Simultaneously, the US-Iran war narrative remains stable with no de-escalation, as Trump claims the Iran blockade is working and oil holds weekly gains. However, a potential counter-signal emerges: the US Defense Secretary argues the ceasefire with Iran 'pauses' the 60-day war powers clock, suggesting the administration may seek to avoid escalation. On the corporate front, Apple reported a beat on revenue and EPS, driven by strong Mac and Services growth, but iPhone revenue slightly missed. Meta's stock plunged 8.6% after hours on elevated capex guidance of $135B, while Alphabet surged 10% on strong cloud results. The yen surged on suspected Japanese intervention, its best day since 2022, dragging the dollar index down 1%. US stock futures rose on tech earnings, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs. Oil prices remain elevated near $105/bbl, with Brent touching $120 earlier. The DHS shutdown ended as Congress passed funding, removing a tail risk. Overall, the window shows a market caught between bullish tech earnings and persistent geopolitical risk from Ukraine-Russia energy strikes and US-Iran tensions.