WS #6328

The dominant narrative remains the Iran war and its impact on energy markets, with Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic plunging 90% and oil prices at multi-year highs. However, a major counter-signal has emerged: Iran has submitted a new peace proposal to the U.S. via Pakistani mediators, confirmed by multiple sources (Axios, IRNA, Zettawire). This de-escalation signal could significantly reduce oil supply risk and pressure crude prices lower. Separately, the Pentagon has signed major AI contracts with SpaceX, OpenAI, Google, and NVIDIA for military applications, which is bullish for defense tech. On the earnings front, Crown Castle raised FY2026 FFO guidance above estimates after closing its $8.5B asset sale and announcing a $1B buyback. Twilio surged after strong Q1 results with bullish analyst views. Moderna beat Q1 sales expectations, finding growth outside the U.S. Eli Lilly jumped on Q1 beat and FDA tightening compounding rules for GLP-1 drugs. Estée Lauder delivered a beat-and-raise quarter. However, NVIDIA fell 4.6% on concerns about AI chip competition from Google TPU and Amazon Trainium, despite strong capex from hyperscalers. Occidental CEO Hollub to retire, with Jackson selected as successor. US natural gas futures extended gains on lower production and LNG demand. The macro picture is mixed: the Iran peace proposal is a potential counter-signal to the oil crisis, but the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, keeping energy stocks supported while airlines and consumer stocks face headwinds.