WS #6333

Markets opened higher on May 1, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new record highs, driven by Apple's strong Q2 earnings beat (EPS $2.01 vs $1.96 est, revenue $111.2B vs $109.66B est) and iPhone 17 demand in China. Apple shares surged ~5.1% in early trading. The Iran conflict narrative remains dominant but shows signs of potential de-escalation: Iran has submitted a new peace proposal via Pakistan, and oil prices pared gains, with WTI falling ~4.8% near $100. However, the White House is reportedly in active negotiations with Congress for war authorization, and the 60-day War Powers deadline has passed without resolution. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for April came in at 52.7, missing consensus of 53.2 but unchanged from prior, with prices paid hitting a four-year high, signaling persistent inflation. Fed's Logan dissented, stating the next rate move could be a cut or a hike, and the Fed should not signal easing. Roblox shares plummeted 18% after slashing full-year guidance due to child safety measures weighing on bookings. Colgate-Palmolive reported better-than-expected Q1 results but warned that the Middle East conflict is pressuring costs and consumer spending worldwide. Chevron and ExxonMobil both beat EPS estimates, driven by higher oil prices, but Chevron's CEO flagged Middle East risks. The Pentagon struck classified AI deals with OpenAI, Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and xAI, excluding Anthropic. Cboe is slashing 20% of its staff to focus on core businesses. The EU-Mercosur trade agreement entered into force provisionally on May 1. US public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 100%, approaching post-WWII record levels. Key developments in this window: Oil prices are falling sharply (WTI -4.8% near $100) on Iran ceasefire hopes and Japan/Mimura crude-futures chatter, with multiple sources corroborating Iran's new peace proposal via Pakistan. This counters the prevailing bullish oil thesis. The White House is engaged in active negotiations with Congress for war authorization, escalating the Iran conflict narrative. Apple's stock is up 5.1% on earnings beat, adding $205B to market cap. Chevron reported EPS beat but revenue miss, with CEO flagging Middle East risks. Exxon CEO estimates 1-2 months for normal Hormuz flows after reopening. Roblox shares plummeted 18% on guidance cut. ISM Manufacturing PMI missed at 52.7 vs 53.2e, with prices paid at four-year high. Fed's Logan dissented against dovish forward guidance. Intel's market cap surpassed Palantir's. Dark pool alerts show large institutional orders in QQQ and RSP. The EU-Mercosur agreement entered into force. Cboe is cutting 20% of staff. The NYT reports conflicting signals in stocks and oil prices amid Iran war havoc.