WS #6341

The dominant macro theme is a potential de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with Iran delivering a new negotiation proposal via Pakistani mediators and its Foreign Minister signaling readiness for diplomacy if US demands change. This has triggered profit-taking in oil, with Brent crude falling ~1.4% to $108.9 and WTI down ~2.6% to $102.3, after hitting $126 earlier in the week. The oil pullback is supporting a broad equity rally, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new record intraday highs. However, the geopolitical situation remains fluid: Senator Blumenthal cited 'imminent military strikes' as still on the table, and the US imposed new sanctions on Cuba, broadening the conflict theater. The Strait of Hormuz blockade continues with shipping down 90%, keeping physical oil prices elevated above futures. Separately, Trump announced a 25% tariff on EU cars and trucks, escalating trade tensions and adding a new headwind for European automakers. Spirit Airlines is preparing to cease operations after a government bailout fell through, marking the first major US airline liquidation since 2008. On the earnings front, Apple reported strong results and guided above estimates, sending shares up 3.9% and lifting tech. The Pentagon signed AI deals with Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Reflection AI for classified military use, expanding the defense AI theme. Bitcoin's April rally was driven by leverage, not spot demand, making it vulnerable. The narrative arc is STABLE for the Iran conflict (diplomatic signals but no resolution), ESCALATING for trade tensions (new EU tariffs), and DE-ESCALATING for oil prices (profit-taking on diplomacy hopes).