WS #6355

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the US-EU trade war, with Trump announcing a 25% tariff on EU auto imports effective next week, cross-corroborated by Bloomberg, Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, and multiple other sources. This escalates the trade conflict and threatens European automakers (BMW, Mercedes, VW) while potentially benefiting US-based production. The Iran ceasefire narrative remains fragile: Trump stated he is 'not satisfied' with Iran's latest proposal, while the White House formally notified Congress that hostilities are 'terminated' to reset the War Powers clock. However, Iran's Rashidi stated the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen, and oil infrastructure remains under attack. Exxon Mobil CEO warned the market hasn't seen the full impact of supply disruption, suggesting further oil price upside. The Pentagon signed AI deals with Google, Microsoft, AWS, Nvidia, OpenAI, Reflection, and SpaceX for classified military systems, a bullish signal for those names. Apple reported strong earnings but warned of higher memory costs and Mac mini shortages lasting months. The macro narrative is ESCALATING on trade war, while the Iran war narrative is STABLE but fragile—ceasefire holds but no deal in sight, with Trump threatening to 'blast them away' if negotiations fail.