WS #6365

The dominant narrative this cycle is an ESCALATION of US-EU trade tensions, with President Trump announcing a 25% tariff on EU car and truck imports, effective next week. This directly counters the prior trade deal framework and introduces significant downside risk for European automakers and US importers. Separately, the Iran war narrative shows a STABLE but unresolved state: Trump notified Congress the war is 'terminated' citing the ceasefire, yet simultaneously expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's negotiating stance, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists. Oil prices dipped ~3% on reports of a new Iranian proposal, but remain elevated above $100/bbl. A high-significance positive from the prior window—Spirit Airlines potential shutdown—is carried forward as Trump confirmed he is still weighing a taxpayer-funded bailout, with an announcement expected Friday or Saturday. In tech, Cerebras Systems is targeting up to $4 billion in its IPO at a ~$40 billion valuation, signaling strong demand for AI chipmakers. The Pentagon announced deals with seven tech companies (including GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA) to use their AI on classified systems, a bullish signal for defense-tech exposure. Apple's post-earnings strength (+3.28%) and positive analyst actions on Twilio and Western Digital provide selective tech tailwinds. The macro backdrop shows US national debt surpassing GDP for the first time since WWII, and gas prices at $4.42/gallon, up ~50% since the Iran war began, pressuring consumer discretionary sectors.