WS #6459

The dominant narrative remains the escalating Iran war, but this window contains a significant new development: Trump announced the US will begin guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday, warning any interference will be met with force. This is a direct counter-signal to the prevailing bearish thesis of prolonged Strait closure, as it represents a concrete US military intervention to reopen the waterway. However, the announcement is contradicted by reports that shipping near the Strait remains under attack, with a bulk carrier reporting an attack by multiple small craft on Sunday, the first such incident since April 22. The fragile ceasefire continues, but Trump has stated Iran's 14-point peace proposal is unacceptable, saying Iran 'has not paid a big enough price.' Iran confirms it is reviewing the US response to its proposal, but insists the plan excludes nuclear negotiations. The UAE formally withdrew from OAPEC effective May 1, and ADNOC announced $55 billion in investments, signaling a strategic shift in Gulf oil politics. OPEC+ approved a modest 188,000 bpd production increase for June, but this is largely symbolic as the Strait closure prevents most Gulf producers from exporting. UK contingency plans allow airlines to cancel flights in advance due to potential jet fuel shortages, underscoring real-world supply chain impacts. The Fed's April FOMC minutes highlighted 'high uncertainty' from Middle East geopolitical risks. Apple is reportedly hoarding LPDDR5 memory, pressuring Chinese OEMs and potentially impacting smartphone supply chains. The overall narrative is one of ESCALATING geopolitical risk with a nascent counter-signal (US Hormuz intervention) that could materially shift the oil supply outlook if executed successfully.