WS #6465

The dominant narrative of US-Iran escalation and oil market disruption continues to ESCALATE, with a new development: Trump announced 'Project Freedom' to escort neutral ships through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. This is corroborated by multiple sources (NBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, MarketWatch) and has caused oil prices to fall over 2% and US stock futures to rise modestly. However, this is a counter-signal that may dampen the bullish oil thesis temporarily, but the underlying risk remains high as Iran warns of consequences and a cargo ship was attacked near the strait. Meanwhile, Ukraine struck Russia's Primorsk oil port and shadow fleet tankers, adding to supply disruption fears. OPEC+ agreed to a symbolic 188,000 bpd output increase for June, but this is largely irrelevant given the ongoing blockade. The narrative is ESCALATING, with no genuine de-escalation signals in this window.