WS #6484

The dominant theme remains the escalating US-Iran confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is now at a critical inflection point. Iran has warned it will consider any US interference in the strait a ceasefire violation, and a tanker was hit by projectiles north of Fujairah. The US has launched 'Project Freedom' to guide ships through the strait, but without Navy escorts, leaving shipowners guessing. The situation is clearly ESCALATING, with both sides actively contesting control of the waterway. Oil prices remain elevated with Brent crude around $108.5, and the IEA warns of a major energy crisis. A counter-signal is the IEA's strategic reserve releases and alternative export routes, but these have only partially offset the supply loss. Separately, GameStop has made a $55.5bn unsolicited takeover offer for eBay, valuing eBay at $125 a share, a 19% premium to Friday's close. The deal would be financed partly by $20bn in debt from TD Securities. This is a high-significance M&A development that could move GME and EBAY shares significantly. Bitcoin has climbed past $80,000 for the first time since January, supported by ETF inflows and risk-on sentiment. European stocks fell as automakers dropped on Trump's threat to raise tariffs on EU cars to 25%, with BMW and Mercedes down over 2%. The EU is seeking trade talks but is ready to respond. The European Political Community summit in Armenia is underway, with leaders discussing security and the Iran crisis, but no concrete market-moving outcomes have emerged yet.