WS #6496

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is ESCALATING with direct military confrontation. Multiple sources (Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, AP) confirm the UAE issued a missile warning and its air defense systems are responding to a threat. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claim they fired on a US warship, though CENTCOM denies any ship was hit. Iran also claims no commercial vessels have crossed the strait in hours, contradicting US assertions that two US-flagged merchant ships successfully transited under 'Project Freedom'. Oil prices spiked sharply, with Brent crude briefly reaching $126.40 before settling near $110, as markets digest conflicting reports. The UAE also confirmed Iran attacked an ADNOC tanker with drones. OPEC+ announced a 188,000 bpd output increase for June, but this is largely symbolic given the blockade. The IEA report suggests methane leak repairs could double lost supply from Hormuz, a potential medium-term offset. Separately, Spirit Airlines announced liquidation, sending shockwaves through the airline sector. Amazon's logistics move is pressuring FDX and UPS. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $80K before retreating to ~$79,300. The UK raised its terror threat level to 'severe'. The EU is considering 25% auto tariffs from Trump, adding trade war risks. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on Iran, with oil price volatility and conflicting claims keeping markets on edge.