WS #6549

The Strait of Hormuz conflict remains the dominant market narrative, with the situation ESCALATING. Iran claims it hit a US warship, while the US says it sank six Iranian boats. The UAE confirmed an Iranian drone strike on an oil facility in Fujairah, wounding three. The UKMTO warns conditions remain 'critical' and an oil tanker was hit by projectiles. Brent crude is around $114, WTI near $112.90, with oil prices easing slightly but remaining elevated. The EU's energy commissioner called it the 'worst energy crisis ever,' costing member states €30 billion extra. The IMF warned the eurozone could approach recession. Iraq is offering massive discounts on crude oil (up to $33.40/bbl) if buyers are willing to transit the Strait of Hormuz to collect it, highlighting the severity of the blockade. The US Treasury announced it expects to borrow $189 billion in Q2, $79 billion higher than its February estimate, which could pressure long-term rates. In corporate news, Eaton (ETN) reported a Q1 beat but lowered its full-year GAAP EPS guidance, sending mixed signals. IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) beat estimates and raised guidance. ADM raised its profit outlook on US biofuels policy. The Bullish acquisition of Equiniti for $4.2 billion is a significant development in tokenized securities. Bitcoin topped $80,000 as risk appetite returned. Apple is reportedly exploring US-based chipmaking options to reduce overseas reliance, a potential long-term positive for US semiconductor supply chain but a negative for TSMC. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the Iran conflict, with no de-escalation signals in this window.