WS #6626

The dominant narrative remains the Iran conflict and its energy crisis, but this window brings a significant de-escalation signal: multiple sources (Axios, Reuters, Investing.com, CoinDesk) report the U.S. and Iran are nearing a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, with Iran expected to respond within 48 hours. This is corroborated by oil prices crashing 6% (WTI to $95.28), Bitcoin approaching $82,000, and Nasdaq futures rising over 1%. Polymarket trades show increased betting on US-Iran diplomatic meetings and Strait of Hormuz normalization. This counters the prevailing bearish energy thesis. Meanwhile, the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire is effectively dead, with Russian forces violating the truce 1,820 times and striking a kindergarten in Sumy, escalating that conflict. On the corporate front, AMD received a Goldman Sachs upgrade from Neutral to Buy with a price target raise to $450, and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is soaring 17% premarket on upbeat Q4 guidance. NICE reported Q1 earnings that beat estimates (EPS $2.64 vs $2.52) and raised FY guidance. Overall, the Iran de-escalation is the most market-moving signal, potentially relieving oil supply fears and boosting risk assets, while the Ukraine conflict escalates.