WS #6659
The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in Middle East geopolitical risk, with multiple sources corroborating an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs — the first since the ceasefire — targeting a Hezbollah commander. This is coupled with Trump issuing a one-week ultimatum for an Iran deal, while the UAE condemns Iran's 'hostile' statements and reserves military rights. The Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to drive record US fuel exports (8.2M bpd), per Bloomberg and FT. Counter-signals include reports that the US and Iran are nearing an agreement, which has boosted aerospace/defense and machinery stocks on expectations of lower energy costs. On the macro front, Fed's Goolsbee warned against reflexively lowering rates, and Apollo CEO Rowan sees 30-35% chance of exogenous shock. In earnings, Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) reported a record quarter with an NVDA direct investment, yet stock fell 6%; AMD received a massive PT hike to $500 from TD Cowen; Myriad Genetics plunged ~20% on a Q1 miss. Anthropic signed a deal for all compute at SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center ahead of SpaceX's IPO, boosting AI infrastructure narrative. The overall narrative is ESCALATING on Middle East tensions, with potential for de-escalation if US-Iran talks yield a deal.
Key developments
- Israel strikes Beirut suburbs for first time since ceasefire, targeting Hezbollah commander
- Trump gives Iran one-week ultimatum for nuclear deal
- US fuel exports hit record 8.2M bpd as Hormuz crisis disrupts supplies
- Fed's Goolsbee warns against reflexively lowering rates
- Apollo CEO Rowan sees 30-35% chance of exogenous shock, preparing for correction
- Lattice Semiconductor reports record quarter with NVDA direct investment, stock falls 6%
- TD Cowen raises AMD price target to $500 from $290, maintains Buy
- Myriad Genetics plunges ~20% on Q1 miss, record sell-off