WS #6699

The dominant narrative remains the Iran-US conflict, with mixed signals. On the peace front, Iran is reviewing a US 'one-page peace plan', and Pakistan is acting as mediator, which has sparked a relief rally in global stocks and a stabilization in oil prices after steep declines. However, China's foreign ministry firmly opposes moves that escalate tensions in the region, and a Ukrainian drone strike in Belgorod killed one, indicating ongoing geopolitical risks. The Iran situation is STABLE for now, with markets awaiting Iran's reply. On the corporate side, Shell reported strong Q1 earnings of $6.92B, beating estimates, driven by the Iran war boosting trading and oil prices, and announced a $3B buyback and a 5% dividend increase. Maersk also beat Q1 profit forecasts. Angelini Pharma is acquiring Catalyst Pharmaceuticals for $4.1B at $31.50/share, a 28% premium. Germany factory orders surged 5.0% MoM in March, far above the 1.0% estimate, signaling economic strength. The UK local elections are underway, a major test for Labour. Overall, the market is in a 'wait-and-see' mode on geopolitics, with strong corporate earnings providing a floor.