WS #6703
The dominant theme remains the Iran-US conflict, with multiple signals pointing toward de-escalation. A French container ship made a rare crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, and Bloomberg reports that a Saudi wealth fund plans to sell its first dollar bonds since the war began, indicating easing financial stress. Al Jazeera confirms Tehran is 'reviewing' US proposals, and Trump said 'very good talks' have been held. However, 1,600 vessels remain stalled near the Strait, and Maersk CEO warned of $500M/month extra costs. Oil prices fell 2.2% to $93 on peace hopes, but Peter Schiff warned prices may never return to pre-war levels. Shell's profits surged on oil volatility, while Maersk's EBITDA met expectations but warned of downside risks. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING, but the physical blockage persists. In other markets, Asia stocks rallied on AI boom outpacing war risks, and the yuan hit a 3-year high against the USD at 6.8487. Berkshire increased stakes in Sumitomo and Marubeni above 10%. The UK construction PMI collapsed to 39.7 from 45.6, signaling deep contraction. Norges Bank raised rates to 4.25% as inflation remains too high. Latvia scrambled fighter jets after drones from Russia crashed into oil storage tanks, a NATO escalation risk. The EU failed to finalize a US trade deal overnight, raising tariff risks. Interactive Brokers became the first major US broker to offer trading in Korea's $1.8T equity market.
Key developments
- Iran-US de-escalation: French ship crosses Hormuz, Saudi plans dollar bonds, Tehran reviewing proposal
- Maersk CEO warns $500M/month extra costs from oil shock, will pass to customers
- Shell profit surges as Iran war drives oil volatility and trading gains
- Drones from Russia crash into Latvia oil storage tanks, NATO scrambles jets
- UK Construction PMI collapses to 39.7, deep contraction
- Yuan hits 3-year high at 6.8487, China gold reserves rise
- EU fails to finalize US trade deal, Trump warns of fresh tariffs
- Berkshire increases stakes in Sumitomo and Marubeni above 10%