WS #6716

The dominant narrative remains the escalating energy/geopolitical crisis, but new developments suggest potential de-escalation. Iran is considering a US proposal for a 14-point memorandum of understanding that could include a suspension of nuclear enrichment, lifting of sanctions, and restoring free transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This is cross-corroborated by BBC, Axios, and Reuters, and is reflected in Polymarket bets on a peace deal by May 15-31. However, counter-signals persist: the US Treasury plans to sanction Iraq's Deputy Oil Minister (WSJ), and Shell CEO/CFO commentary indicates the company still has vessels inside the Strait of Hormuz and is considering its LNG Canada midstream exposure. The narrative arc is shifting from ESCALATING to POTENTIALLY DE-ESCALATING for the Iran conflict, but the energy supply disruption remains acute. On the Fed front, Hammack and Collins both signal higher-for-longer rates, with Collins opposing any easing bias and Hammack worried about persistent inflation from the war. On the corporate side, AAON raised FY2026 sales guidance significantly, while Coca-Cola Consolidated tumbled despite strong sales. GPGI's massive revenue guidance (FY2026 $1.95B-$2.1B vs $509M est.) is a standout. The tech rally shows mixed signals: NVDA and TSLA are up, but Snap ended its Perplexity alliance and AST SpaceMobile fell on Rakuten stake sale. The overall market is mixed with Dow down, Nasdaq up.