WS #6749

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in the Iran/Strait of Hormuz conflict, with multiple high-priority Bluesky posts reporting US military strikes on Iran's Qeshm Port and Bandar Abbas, as well as a missile fired at a US vessel. This is corroborated by a surge in Polymarket trading on Iran-related outcomes (airspace closure, peace deal, regime fall). The geopolitical risk narrative is clearly ESCALATING, with direct implications for oil prices and risk assets. Separately, a wave of earnings reports is hitting, with standout signals including NVIDIA's strategic partnership with IREN to deploy up to 5GW of AI infrastructure (with a $2.1B investment option), Rocket Lab's record quarter and raised guidance, and CoreWeave's strongest bookings in history. However, the geopolitical risk likely overshadows individual earnings beats for the broader market. Key counter-signal: Oil prices fell below $100 despite the escalation, suggesting the market may be pricing in a limited conflict, but gas prices continue to climb, benefiting refiners. The US official stating the strikes are 'not a restart of the war' acts as a partial counter to the bearish thesis.