WS #6776

The US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant market driver, with the ceasefire appearing fragile after a new exchange of fire. BBC reports Trump says ceasefire still in place despite Iran launching missiles and drones at US destroyers, while Iran accuses US of aerial attacks on coastal areas. This follows reports that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait suspended US military access to bases and airspace, per NBC News and multiple Bluesky sources, effectively collapsing Trump's 'Project Freedom'. The situation is ESCALATING, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, supporting elevated oil prices. Separately, the UK local elections show Reform UK making significant gains at Labour's expense, with Labour expected to lose the Senedd in Wales for the first time in a century, adding political uncertainty. TSMC reported April revenue of NT$410.73B, up 17.5% Y/Y, a positive signal for the semiconductor sector. BT Brands stock fell 35% after hours on merger termination. The EU trade deal with the US faces a July 4 deadline from Trump, threatening higher tariffs. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING geopolitical risk in the Middle East, with oil prices likely to remain elevated, benefiting energy stocks while pressuring indices and consumer stocks.