WS #6778

The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, with fresh reports of missile strikes on a US Navy vessel and ongoing drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Shell CEO flagged a ~1 billion barrel crude shortage, warning the 'journey back will be a long one,' reinforcing bullish energy and bearish consumer/airline sentiment. UK house price growth forecast was halved due to Iran war fallout, with mortgage rates rising. On the corporate front, SoftBank cut its margin loan target for OpenAI by 40% to $6B, signaling tighter AI funding conditions. Nintendo hiked Switch 2 prices and forecast declining sales due to memory chip crunch, negative for gaming and memory stocks. IREN's 5GW partnership with Nvidia continues to be a positive signal for AI infrastructure. The UK local elections saw Starmer refusing to resign despite tough results, but this is a domestic political story with limited US market impact. The overall narrative is ESCALATING geopolitical risk, with oil prices likely to remain elevated, benefiting energy stocks while pressuring indices and consumer stocks.