WS #6783

The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with new developments in the last 30 minutes: Iran has seized a tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and Israel launched airstrikes in southern Lebanon followed by a massive rocket barrage from Lebanon into northern Israel. These events mark a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict, directly threatening oil supply routes and regional stability. The Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to choke shipping, with a new game simulating the crisis highlighting the severity. On the macro front, Fed's Miran stated it is appropriate to cut interest rates, a dovish signal that could offset some risk-off sentiment. Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 5-day inflow streak as BTC dipped under $80,000, reflecting risk aversion. In corporate news, Apple stock rose on a Wedbush target hike to $400 on AI push, while Expedia tumbled on Middle East conflict and Mexico travel advisory. Several earnings reports were mixed: Construction Partners beat estimates, Oshkosh missed, TeraWulf reported a large loss but HPC revenue surged, and Wendy's beat revenue estimates. The US seized all of Venezuela's oil fields, a major geopolitical development that could impact oil markets. The UK local elections saw the Green Party win Hackney Mayor from Labour, a significant political shift. Overall, the Middle East situation is ESCALATING, with the Iran tanker seizure and Israel-Lebanon rocket fire adding to supply concerns. The Fed's Miran comments are a counter-signal to the hawkish narrative, potentially supporting risk assets. The Venezuela oil field seizure is a new bullish catalyst for oil prices.