WS #6805

The dominant theme remains the escalating US-Iran military confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to escalate. Multiple sources (Fars, SmartNews, EuropeSays, Bluesky) report sporadic clashes between Iranian forces and US Navy vessels, with US CENTCOM confirming strikes on two empty Iranian oil tankers. This marks a clear escalation from the previous window's sporadic clashes. Oil prices continue to rise: WTI at $95.71 (+0.95%), Brent at $101.6 (+1.49%), with a Polymarket market on WTI closing above $97 today. The crisis is driving Japanese companies to secure credit lines at a record pace and Japan buying 20M barrels of UAE oil to bypass the blockade. Separately, Nvidia (NVDA) hit a new all-time high, adding $103B in market cap this morning, contradicting any macro risk-off narrative. HubSpot (HUBS) remains at 52-week lows after BofA double-downgrade. The Virginia Supreme Court struck down a redistricting referendum, a political development with potential midterm implications but limited direct market impact. UK borrowing costs fell and the pound rose on Starmer's vow to remain PM, easing political uncertainty. Pharma stocks are trading lower on reports that HHS Secretary Kennedy is exploring a ban on widely used antidepressants. The US-Iran situation is ESCALATING, while the UK political uncertainty is DE-ESCALATING. In this window, new signals include: Jane Street reported record $16.1B trading revenue in Q1, more than double the year-ago figure, signaling strong institutional trading activity. Micron (MU) is up 13% with chatter about reaching $1T market cap, supported by SA analyst upgrades citing AI-driven memory supercycle. Cloudflare (NET) reported strong Q1 with 34% revenue growth and guided $2.805B-$2.813B for 2026, but the stock's vol crush is noted as excessive. Block (SQ) posted blowout Q1 on Cash App strength with raised outlook. Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA) slumped 14% after projecting FY26 cash burn of $125M-$150M. Rackspace Technology (RXT) surged to 52-week highs on AMD partnership and Q1 sales beat. The UK local elections show Reform UK making historic gains, with Sky News projecting a hung parliament with Reform as the largest party if results were a general election. Welsh Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat, a historic first. The Pentagon released first batch of previously secret UFO files, following Trump directive. ECB's Lagarde warned against euro stablecoins, favoring CBDC. France is reportedly planning to charge Elon Musk with complicity in child sexual abuse imagery. The Virginia Supreme Court struck down Democratic-drawn maps, which Trump celebrated as a win for GOP. Apple's biggest bull Wedbush's Ives calls for 37% stock jump ahead of WWDC.