WS #6808

The dominant macro theme remains the US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which is ESCALATING. The US struck two Iranian oil tankers (Guardian, Bluesky), while the US awaits Iran's response to a ceasefire proposal (Rubio, Guardian). Fitch forecasts Brent at $100-110/bbl if the Strait remains closed, falling to $70 by September. Iran has made passage restrictions permanent, and the Polymarket probability of normal traffic by May 15 is only 2.5%. This is bullish for energy (XOM, CVX, XLE) and bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumer stocks. The EU and IATA are exploring US-grade jet fuel to ease European shortages (BBC), a counter-signal that dampens the bearish airline thesis. Separately, the WSJ-reported Apple-Intel chip deal (multiple sources: WSJ, Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, Bluesky) is a high-significance development: bullish for INTC and AAPL, bearish for TSM. Intel shares surged on the news. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high above 7,400 (Bluesky), supported by strong jobs data and tech strength. Ukraine continues to strike Russian oil infrastructure (Yaroslavl refinery), countering US requests to keep oil prices under control. The UK local elections show Reform UK gains, with Welsh Labour leader losing her seat (BBC, Bluesky). Moderna stock surged on hantavirus vaccine research confirmation (Investing.com). Jane Street reported record $16.1B Q1 trading revenue (Bloomberg, Bluesky).