WS #6867

The dominant narrative remains the Iran-US conflict, which is in a state of fragile ceasefire after US strikes on Iranian oil tankers. Multiple sources (Bloomberg, EuropeSays, Brisbane Times) report the ceasefire appears to be holding, but the situation is highly unstable. Iran is moving to assert sovereign control over undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz, a significant escalation that could disrupt global internet and financial traffic. Oil inventories are being drawn down at record speed due to the disruption of Persian Gulf flows, supporting elevated oil prices. Separately, a blowout earnings season is providing a bullish counter-narrative for US equities, with 82% of S&P 500 firms posting Y/Y earnings growth and 88% beating estimates. The tech sector continues to show strength, with Lumentum replacing CoStar on the Nasdaq-100. In crypto, BlackRock is deepening its tokenization push with new onchain fund offerings, a positive signal for the sector. On the geopolitical front, Hungary's new PM Peter Magyar was sworn in, ending Orbán's 16-year rule, which could shift EU policy dynamics. Bahrain arrested dozens over alleged IRGC links, and a hantavirus outbreak on a Spain-bound cruise ship is prompting evacuation efforts. The overall market picture is one of resilience in equities despite ongoing geopolitical risks, with the Iran situation remaining the key risk factor.