WS #6889

The dominant signal in this window is the ongoing Israel-Lebanon escalation and the broader Iran conflict, which remains the primary market-moving theme. Key developments include: (1) Israeli attacks across Lebanon killed at least 19 despite a US-brokered ceasefire, indicating the ceasefire is fragile and escalation continues; (2) Chevron's CEO warned of emerging energy supply disruptions across several economies, reinforcing the energy crisis narrative; (3) Trump Media reported a Q1 net loss of $405.9 million driven by $244 million in unrealized crypto losses, a significant negative for DJT; (4) Péter Magyar was sworn in as Hungary's PM, pledging constitutional reform, a political shift in an EU member state; (5) Russia is circumventing US sanctions by shipping drone components to Iran via the Caspian Sea, escalating the conflict's supply chain implications. The Israel-Iran conflict remains the dominant theme, with no de-escalation signals. The Chevron warning and Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to pressure energy markets. DJT's earnings are a company-specific negative. The Hungary PM change is a political development with limited near-term market impact. The Russia-Iran sanctions circumvention adds a new dimension to the conflict, potentially prolonging it.