WS #6980

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran tensions. Multiple sources (BBC, Axios, Bloomberg, Jerusalem Post, and various breaking news accounts) report that President Trump has publicly rejected Iran's latest response to the US ceasefire proposal, calling it 'totally unacceptable.' This is corroborated by a Truth Social post from Trump himself. The rejection marks a hardening of the US stance and reduces the probability of a near-term de-escalation, which had been a prevailing market hope. The narrative arc is ESCALATING: the previous stalemate has now moved to explicit rejection. This development is likely to support oil prices (WTI, XOM, CVX) and weigh on risk assets (SPY, QQQ) as geopolitical risk premia reprice. Separately, a Polymarket trade on 'US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31' and multiple Strait of Hormuz-related contracts indicate market pricing of a low probability of resolution. No counter-signals (e.g., diplomatic progress or intervention) are present in this window. The previous situational awareness noted no new developments; this batch provides a clear negative catalyst.