WS #7008

The dominant macro theme remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, with the Strait of Hormuz closure continuing to disrupt supply. Trump's rejection of an Iranian peace proposal has escalated tensions, pushing oil prices higher and reinforcing the bullish energy thesis. This is corroborated by multiple sources: a Bloomberg headline on oil price jumps, a Cointelegraph report on Bitcoin rallying 2.3% after Trump's rejection, and Polymarket bets on Strait of Hormuz traffic not returning to normal. The narrative is ESCALATING. Meanwhile, the AI/semiconductor boom continues with China chip stocks rallying on self-sufficiency signals and Cerebras raising its IPO price range, indicating strong demand for AI chipmakers. However, China's car sales fell 21.5% in April due to the Iran oil shock, a bearish signal for auto and consumer sectors. The ECB's de Guindos downplays inflation risks, suggesting rate hikes may be less aggressive, which is a mild positive for growth stocks. A long-dormant Bitcoin whale moved $40M, but this is likely a security transfer rather than a sale, so limited market impact. Overall, the key developments are the Iran escalation (bullish energy, bearish airlines/consumer), the AI chip rally (bullish NVDA, AMD, MU), and China's auto sales slump (bearish TSLA, GM).