WS #7030

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant market narrative, with the situation ESCALATING. Trump has dismissed Iran's response to US peace proposals as 'totally unacceptable', and Iran has counter-proposed demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, while its atomic energy chief declared uranium enrichment non-negotiable. CENTCOM reports redirecting 62 commercial vessels under the blockade. Saudi Aramco's CEO warned a blocked Strait could reduce crude oil supply by 100 million barrels per week. Norden is assuming its ships will be stuck in Hormuz all year. Oil prices remain elevated (WTI +1.48%, Brent +1.73%). The J.P. Morgan Private Bank mid-year outlook explicitly calls the Strait of Hormuz closure 'the largest oil supply shock since World War II', reinforcing the severity. On the macro data front, US Existing Home Sales rose 0.2% MoM in April (vs -2.9% prior), and the Conference Board Employment Trends Index increased to 105.77, signaling labor market resilience. In corporate news, Brookfield Asset Management is investing $500M in OpenAI's deployment platform, and Strategy added 535 BTC. Circle shares rose after Q1 EPS beat with strong USDC growth. AMD hit a 52-week high as Wall Street pivots to broader AI infrastructure. The hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius continues to spread, with new cases in US and French nationals, but remains a low systemic risk. The prevailing macro theme is oil-driven inflation fears and geopolitical uncertainty, with the US-Iran situation showing no signs of de-escalation.