WS #7047

The dominant signal in this window is the sharp escalation of the Iran crisis, with multiple high-significance developments confirming the ceasefire is collapsing. Trump explicitly stated the ceasefire is on 'massive life support' after rejecting Iran's latest peace proposal, and is weighing military action including naval escorts in the Strait of Hormuz and new airstrikes. Iran has deployed mini submarines as an 'invisible guardian' of the Strait, and an oil supertanker exiting the Persian Gulf has halted near the Gulf of Oman, signaling heightened risk to shipping. Brent and WTI crude futures surged more than $4/barrel on the stalemate, with oil prices already above $97 (WTI) and $104 (Brent). The Trump administration is planning to temporarily reduce tariffs on beef imports to combat rising food prices, and Trump said he aims to suspend the federal gas tax. Separately, Trump will travel to China this week with CEOs including Elon Musk, and the NYT reports chief executives will accompany him. The UK political situation is also notable: 60 Labour MPs have called for Keir Starmer to resign, and two frontbenchers have resigned. However, the Iran/oil narrative is the primary market mover.