WS #7053
The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Iran crisis. Trump has declared the ceasefire on 'life support' after rejecting Iran's latest proposal, calling it 'garbage' and 'stupid'. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, AP, Bloomberg, CNBC, and Polymarket trades). The Strait of Hormuz remains shut, with Saudi Aramco warning that global oil markets are losing 100 million barrels every week. Oil prices are surging: WTI +2.90%, Brent +2.90%. OPEC output has fallen to its lowest since 2000. Counter-signals include the US SPR release (record 8.6 million barrels last week) and Trump's plan to temporarily reduce beef tariffs to lower food prices. Separately, Trump is bringing 17 tech and finance CEOs to Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping, which could impact trade and tech stocks. In company-specific news, IonQ surged 15% on revenue beat, Monday.com jumped on earnings, and a $4.1M whale bought TSLA calls. The Iran narrative is ESCALATING, while the Trump-Xi summit is a new development.
Key developments
- Trump rejects Iran's proposal, says ceasefire on 'life support'
- Strait of Hormuz disruption: 100M barrels/week lost, OPEC output at lowest since 2000
- Trump brings 17 tech and finance CEOs to Beijing for summit with Xi
- IonQ surges 15% after Q1 revenue beat and raised guidance
- Monday.com jumps on earnings beat, 32% surge in large customers
- 67 Labour MPs call for PM Starmer to resign
- US House lawmakers introduce bill to ban Chinese vehicles in US
- BP upgraded to Buy at Argus and RBC on higher oil prices