WS #7060

The dominant Iran crisis narrative continues to escalate, with multiple signals reinforcing the bullish oil thesis. Trump is considering military action against Iran to pressure nuclear concessions, and has rejected Iran's peace proposal, calling the ceasefire on 'life support.' The US Treasury imposed sanctions on 12 individuals/entities aiding Iran's oil shipments to China. Pakistan has reportedly allowed Iran to station military aircraft on its airfields despite its mediator role, per CBS News. Oil prices are surging: Brent crude settling around $104 a barrel, WTI near $98.56. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve released a record 8.6 million barrels last week (1.22M bpd), the largest weekly drawdown ever, countering oil supply fears. OPEC oil output fell to a 26-year low of 20.04 million bpd in April, with Kuwait exporting zero crude. A major fire broke out at HF Sinclair refinery in Tulsa, Oklahoma, adding to supply disruption concerns. The SPY is bouncing to new all-time highs. Meta (META) is trading lower despite a positive Nasdaq. Former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever confirmed a ~$7B ownership stake in OpenAI during court testimony. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on Iran/geopolitical risk, with oil supply tightening and potential military action, but partially offset by record SPR releases and diplomatic signals.