WS #7085

The Iran crisis continues to escalate with multiple corroborating sources confirming that the UAE secretly carried out strikes on Iran, including an attack on Lavan Island's oil refinery. This widens the conflict beyond US-Iran and adds a new dimension to the supply disruption risk. Saudi Aramco CEO warned that Strait of Hormuz closure could cut 100M barrels weekly, reinforcing the bullish oil thesis. India's government warns it has only ~60 days of crude oil reserves, highlighting the severity of the supply crunch. Kevin Warsh advanced for Fed Chair in a 49-44 cloture vote, a bullish signal for financials and crypto. Bitcoin and crypto markets are flat to down as the US-Iran peace proposal hits a roadblock, with Ethereum diving. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING geopolitical risk, with oil above $98 and Brent above $104. The SPR release acts as a counter-signal but is insufficient to offset the supply threat. Drone attacks on Ukraine continue, but are secondary to the Iran story. Bolivia protests over fuel shortages add to global energy anxiety.