WS #7115

The dominant macro narrative remains ESCALATING: US inflation surged to 3.8% in April (from 3.3% in March), the highest since May 2023, driven by Iran war-induced oil spikes. Core CPI rose 0.4% MoM, double March's pace, and markets are now pricing in >35% chance of Fed rate hikes in 2026 — a sharp reversal from rate-cut expectations. Oil remains above $107/bbl, with Brent crude at $118 in April, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to choke global supply. The Pentagon disclosed the Iran war cost has reached $29 billion, up $4 billion in two weeks. Trump rejected Iranian peace proposals and is weighing restarting military operations, while also backing a federal gas-tax holiday. Vietnam urgently requested US permission to pass an oil tanker through the naval blockade. Kuwait summoned Iran's ambassador over alleged IRGC infiltration on Bubiyan Island. Israeli strikes hit Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. Ukrainian drones struck a refinery and oil pumping station in Perm, Russia, further disrupting Russian oil supply. Copper surged above $14,000/ton on Chinese demand and supply risks. Bitcoin held steady near $80,500 despite the inflation shock. Foxconn reported cyberattacks on some North American factories. Sea Limited (SE) reported strong Q1 with Shopee revenue up 45% YoY, driving a stock rally. Halozyme Therapeutics beat Q1 estimates and announced a $1B buyback. Parsons was awarded a $136M Air Force contract. NSK and NTN agreed to merge into the world's top bearing manufacturer. The US Energy Department is considering financing billions for nuclear reactor long-lead parts. JPMorgan's prime brokerage hit record balances amid volatility. Netflix faces a Texas lawsuit over alleged spying. Wendy's (WEN) saw M&A speculation with Trian/Peltz seeking backing, but JPM cut to Underweight. Broadcom (AVGO) fell amid a Nasdaq pullback. The prevailing narrative is ESCALATING across inflation, Iran conflict, and oil supply disruption, with no counter-signals detected.