WS #7153

The dominant narrative remains the Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is now showing signs of escalation. Multiple sources (NYT, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, MintPress) corroborate that Iran retains 70% of its prewar missile stockpile and 90% of its launch sites, contradicting earlier claims of decimation. Additionally, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reportedly launched joint airstrikes on Iran alongside Israel, marking a significant escalation. This has direct implications for energy markets: oil prices are likely to remain elevated, with Polymarket showing bets on WTI hitting $105 in May. The NYT reports inflation accelerating due to Iran war energy costs, and Bloomberg highlights an aluminum shortfall. Separately, Intel (INTC) is down 6.8% with no clear catalyst, and Apple (AAPL) insiders sold $142.4M in a cluster sale, a bearish signal for the stock. Wheat futures hit limit-up after USDA reduced production outlook, which could impact food inflation. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization bets on Polymarket suggest markets expect continued disruption. The overall narrative is one of escalation in the Middle East conflict, with second-order effects on inflation, energy, and commodities.