WS #7173

The dominant narrative remains the US-China summit with Trump in Beijing, but this window brings several new high-signal developments. First, a Bahrain-led UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz freedom of navigation has gained 112 co-sponsors, signaling broad international pressure to reopen the strait. This is a potential counter-signal to the ongoing oil supply crisis. Second, Ukraine continues to escalate drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, hitting the Taman port (3 oil tanks burning), the Astrakhan gas processing plant, and the Nurlino pumping station in Bashkortostan. This extends pressure on Russia's internal oil logistics and could keep oil prices elevated. Third, SoftBank posted a $46 billion gain at Vision Fund driven by its OpenAI bet, reinforcing the AI narrative. Fourth, India more than doubled bullion import taxes to 15% to protect the rupee, which could pressure gold prices and impact miners. Fifth, an Iran-linked LPG tanker sailed past the US Navy's blockade line in the Strait of Hormuz, a direct challenge to the blockade. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is also expected to slow UK GDP growth to 0.8% per EY analysis. Overall, the geopolitical situation is ESCALATING on the Ukraine-Russia energy front and the Strait of Hormuz, while the UN resolution offers a potential de-escalation path. The US-China summit remains the key catalyst for tech.