WS #7182

The dominant narrative remains the escalating oil supply crisis and geopolitical tensions, with the Ukraine-Russia conflict intensifying after a ceasefire expired. Ukrainian drone strikes hit a Russian gas plant and oil terminal, while Russia launched a mass drone attack on Ukraine, killing nine. Poland scrambled fighter jets as a defensive measure. The IEA reported Russia's oil export revenue continued to grow in April, and global oil demand is expected to contract for 2026. India more than doubled gold and silver import tariffs to shore up the rupee amid the Iran war. Japan's refinery utilization is rebounding as non-Middle East crude supply eases. The German government stated no energy supply problem and sufficient kerosene reserves. The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing is the key macro event, with a delegation of US CEOs including Musk and Cook. Bitcoin holds below $81,000 ahead of the talks. In tech, Tower Semiconductor signed $1.3B in silicon photonics contracts for 2027, a strong bullish signal for TSEM and the photonics sector. Nebius Group reported mixed Q1 results but raised contracted power guidance to over 4GW, indicating strong AI infrastructure demand. Vishay Intertechnology beat estimates and guided Q2 above consensus, a positive for the semiconductor cycle. Brown-Forman reportedly rejected a $15B takeover bid from Sazerac. The UK King's Speech outlined 37 bills, including steel nationalization and EU partnership powers, but was overshadowed by Starmer's leadership crisis. The overall narrative arc is ESCALATING geopolitical risk with mixed tech signals and UK political instability.