WS #7187

The dominant macro narrative remains the escalating oil supply crisis driven by the US-Israeli war on Iran, with new corroborating signals emerging in this window. Saudi Arabia's OPEC production has fallen to its lowest level since 1990, while Ukraine drone strikes have halted Russia's Perm oil refinery (the ninth Russian refinery to suspend operations this spring) and struck the Taman oil terminal. These supply disruptions are compounding the energy shock. Separately, US PPI surged to 6% in April, the fastest pace since 2022, driven by war-related energy costs, fanning Fed rate hike fears. The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing is underway, with Al Jazeera and Bloomberg highlighting the asymmetric dynamic: Trump needs Xi more than Xi needs Trump, as the US seeks Chinese cooperation to de-escalate the Iran crisis. A potential counter-signal emerged: Pakistan and Iraq have struck separate energy deals with Iran to secure oil and LNG passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which could partially offset the blockade's impact. In corporate news, eBay rejected GameStop's $56B takeover bid, deeming it not credible. Wix shares tumbled 24% after a Q1 earnings miss. Charles Schwab began rolling out Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to retail clients, while Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $233M. Equinox Gold agreed to acquire Orla Mining for ~$5.1B in a cash-and-stock deal, signaling continued M&A in the gold sector amid the bullion rally. The Philippine Senate was locked down after gunfire as security forces attempted to arrest Senator Dela Rosa on ICC charges, a geopolitical sideshow. Putin announced Russia will continue to develop missile systems capable of overcoming all current and future missile defense systems, and modernize strategic nuclear forces, adding to geopolitical tensions. The IEA forecasts a 1.78M bpd supply deficit for 2026, erasing a prior surplus, underscoring the severity of the oil crisis.