WS #7201

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran oil crisis and its second-order effects, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade continuing to disrupt global oil supplies. OPEC has slashed its oil demand forecast as production has fallen more than 30% since the Iran war began, with Saudi Arabia pumping at its lowest level since 1990. This is escalating the energy shock, with fuel prices soaring and diesel impacting U.S. agricultural transport. Russia is reportedly benefiting from a $10 billion per month windfall from spiked energy prices. Italy is deploying minesweepers to the Strait of Hormuz, and a White House official indicates China has pressured Iran to reach an agreement, suggesting potential de-escalation efforts. However, Polymarket bets on a US-Iran peace deal by May 15 remain active but uncertain. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high above 7,400, driven by tech and AI optimism, despite the geopolitical turmoil. The Cerebras IPO is set for tomorrow, with reports that Arm/SoftBank made a last-ditch effort to buy the company before the IPO, and markets are flashing a major sell signal according to some analysts. Marvell Technology (MRVL) stock jumped 10% as NVIDIA's CEO joined Trump's China delegation, with a $200 price target from BofA. Nike (NKE) fell to its lowest price in almost 12 years. The Fed's annual survey shows Americans worried about high prices and the job market, while Boston Fed's Collins says her patience for 'looking through' price shocks is reduced, hinting at a hawkish tilt. Wholesale prices surged more than expected. In company-specific news, HPE stock rose as Irenic Capital joined Elliott Management in an activist push. Eos Energy (EOSE) rallied on a Q1 earnings beat with a surprise profit. Similarweb shares fell on worse-than-expected Q1 EPS. The dominant theme is ESCALATING on the energy/geopolitical front, while tech continues to rally on AI momentum, creating a bifurcated market.