WS #7223

The dominant signal in this window is the Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, confirmed by multiple sources (NPR, The Block, Seeking Alpha, Decrypt, and several Bluesky posts). The vote was 54-45, with Senator Fetterman the only Democrat to support. This is a pro-crypto, potentially hawkish appointment that could impact rate expectations. Separately, the Iran war continues to drive oil prices and inflation concerns, with Brent surging 45% since the conflict began and Japan experiencing faster inflation pass-through. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. A counter-signal emerges: the IEA and Japan are buying strategic oil reserves to bypass the blockade, which may dampen the oil supply crisis. On the MAG7 front, GOOGL hit a record high per multiple sources, while NVDA's China revenue allegations (Culper Research report) create a bearish counter-narrative. NKE hit a 12-year low. The Anthropic $900B valuation raise signals continued AI exuberance. The Clarity Act crypto bill is back in the Senate, with banks trying to kill it. Venezuela announced a debt restructuring process. Overall, the narrative is ESCALATING on Iran oil crisis and inflation, with the Warsh confirmation adding a new policy variable.