WS #7390

The dominant narrative remains the Iran/Hormuz situation, which is STABLE with no major escalation or de-escalation. The Trump-Xi summit concluded without a breakthrough on Iran, though Trump claimed Xi offered diplomatic help. China's foreign ministry called for a ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz. The BRICS meeting ended without a joint statement due to differing views on Iran. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated it's 'up to Iran' on the Strait of Hormuz and expects China to be a bigger buyer of U.S. crude. Oil prices are jumping on Trump's claim that China agreed to buy U.S. crude, though unconfirmed. The 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.1%, causing stock futures to slide on inflation jitters. Japan's 30-year JGB yield broke 4% for the first time since 1999, adding to global bond selloff. On the MAG7 front, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square disclosed a new stake in Microsoft (MSFT), a bullish signal. OpenAI is exploring legal action against Apple (AAPL) over ChatGPT integration. Nvidia (NVDA) may regain limited China AI chip access, with H200 clearance for ~10 China firms, lifting NVDA 2-4.4%. Cerebras nearly doubled in its IPO. Anthropic agreed terms of a $30bn funding deal at $900bn valuation. Ukraine reportedly struck the Ryazan oil refinery, escalating supply-side risk for energy markets. The Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 19.6 vs 7.8 consensus, with prices paid surging to 62.6, reinforcing inflation concerns. Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Overall, the Iran situation remains the highest-signal item with oil and energy stocks likely to react, while the broader market faces inflation headwinds from surging bond yields.