WS #7505

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran escalation, now in its 11th week, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade continuing to bite (throughput down from 130+ to 13 vessels, per a Kapualabs analysis reposted in the window). A Bloomberg report confirms a global inventory race intensifying, corroborating the oil supply crisis. The UK refusal to join the blockade (from previous awareness) is not refuted in this window and remains a counter-signal. A new development: a drone strike hit an Iranian Kurdish opposition HQ in Sulaymaniyah, indicating widening conflict. Separately, Apple's CEO attended a state dinner in China, with Evercore ISI raising AAPL price target to $365, a bullish MAG7 signal contradicting any macro tech weakness. The Eurovision final is ongoing but not market-moving. The hantavirus case on a cruise ship is a health story with no direct market impact. Overall, the macro narrative is escalating on Iran, with energy stocks (XOM, CVX, XLE) bullish, airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL) bearish, and defense stocks (LMT, RTX) likely to benefit. The UK refusal to join the blockade is a counter-signal that could dampen the oil price spike thesis slightly, but the overall direction remains bullish for energy.